“When America sneezes, the world catches cold.” (Prussian diplomat, Klemens Wenzel Furst von Metternich)
“A crisis is an opportunity riding a dangerous wind.” (Chinese proverb)
Broad Background Overview
Since 2020, the political foundations in America and in the world have shifted tectonically.
For example, we’re all currently living in a WW3 scenario, which includes the probability of a nuclear Armageddon, thanks to the reckless support for the military-industrial complex and dangerous foreign policy decisions of the Biden-Harris administration. In addition, America is facing a cost-of-living crisis, with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) sky-high. On top of that, the southern border of the USA is broken and a national security crisis prevails due to the sheer social and cultural impact of absorbing millions of undocumented migrants, including, among the good people, numerous vicious terrorists, criminals and human traffickers.
These incoming tides of history will sweep Trump to power in 2024.
Back in 2020, former President Trump, his administration burdened by the dire COVID-19 pandemic and the fall-out from nationwide racial unrest following the murder of George Floyd and gender polarization from the me-too movement, found himself stranded on the wrong side of history. These social changes put him in a bad light.
In addition, the 70 million strong Millennials (those aged 23-38) overtook the Baby Boomers (the 55-73 age group) as the nation’s largest generation and they tended, by and large, to vote Democrat. At the same time, the voting bloc of the Gen Zs (born after 1996) rose from 4% of the electorate in 2016 to about 10% in 2020. They, too, were mostly Democrat-leaning. Biden’s connections with the working-class also counteracted some of the support Trump has always enjoyed among working-class whites. The then President was corralled in with his 38% core base against a wave of popular democratic support, flush with the new blood and enthusiasm of the Millennials and Gen Zs.
But things have changed since then and in 2024, Donald J. Trump is back on the right side of history.
That’s why I’m backing a comfortable Trump victory, unlike social commentators such as filmmaker and activist Michael Moore, and the highly successful predictor of US Presidential elections, Professor Allan Lichtman, who are both backing Harris to win.
The powerful social and historical forces I’ll explain in this blog will enable Trump to reverse his 2020 defeat and to beat VP Harris by a similar, or larger, margin than the one Biden beat him by just four years ago.
As a qualified futurist, who correctly predicted Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory, as well as his subsequent defeat in 2020 and his initial refusal to hand over power peacefully 1, I believe there’s a 60% probability that Donald Trump will convincingly win both the popular vote and the electoral college vote in 2024. This will give him the Presidency for a second time and crown him the comeback king of US politics.
This will be a historic victory, perhaps even a miraculous one. The only other former president who ever come back after being defeated to win a second non-consecutive term, was Grover Cleveland back in 18922.
And the actual miracle will lie in surviving two assassination attempts in the lead-up to the election, in what smacks of a broad conspiracy by Democrats to murder their biggest opponent. The political miracle, though, will be a comeback which is unprecedented in the modern era.
If I’m right, this will be a historic defeat for the Democrats, too, since the Republican Party hasn’t won big in a Presidential election since Bush Snr decimated Michael Dukakis in 1988. The Democrats, in other words, haven’t lost big in a Presidential election for 36 years.
The defeat of Harris will signal the end of this party’s two recent periods of outright domination, between 1993 and 2001, when Bill Clinton reigned supreme, and in the Obama years between 2009 and 2017. Both Clinton and Obama were two-term presidents who won each Presidential election they fought by big majorities. Sandwiched in-between these periods of Democratic dominance was the presidency of George W. Bush with his narrow electoral wins in both 2000 and 2004.
The truth is, the Biden-Harris administration could well be the very worst in US history. Here are 7 (yes, 7!) unforgivable failings of their hapless reign:
- They risked World War 3 along with a high probability of a nuclear Armageddon. The Doomsday clock is now at 90 seconds to midnight to show how dangerous this current world order is!
- They broke the southern US border, with 6.7 million migrant encounters and over 1.7 million unvetted illegal migrants without any documentation now living in the US, including numerous terrorists, criminals and human traffickers. They’ve created an extremely sensitive national security risk within the US which will prevail for years to come.
- They’ve given reckless support for the military-industrial complex, while significantly increasing the US National Debt, spending $175 billion in an unwinnable Ukraine war and $12.5 billion in an equally unwinnable Middle East War, while sending 100,000s of soldiers to their deaths, maiming 100,000s more and condemning countless civilians to violence, death and homelessness.
- They’ve destroyed democracy in the Democratic Party, forbidding contenders against both Biden and Harris, and thereby muzzling the 2024 primaries; then they executed a Palace Coup against Biden, Bolshevik-style. Over the years they’ve thoroughly corrupted democracy by allowing the party to be captured by its billionaire sponsors and its Donor Class.
- They’ve funded and enabled catastrophic levels of genocide in the Gaza war, with over 40,000 Palestinians dead, including 16,456 children and 11,000 women. In addition, there are more than 10,000 Palestinians missing under rubble. Over 90% of the population is now displaced and homeless, many of them starving and malnourished. This is the worst massacre of innocent civilians and one of the worst humanitarian situations I can remember since I started following current affairs and politics in the 1970s.
- Assisted by the mainstream media in the US, they’ve created a climate of hate against their opponents, with persistent extreme rhetoric from the podium, while denying adequate security for both Donald Trump and RFK Jr, even though they knew this election cycle would be exceptionally dangerous and polarized. I believe it’s probable that there was a high-level conspiracy to assassinate former President Donald Trump in a JFK-like execution, using a patsy (i.e. a “useful idiot” like Lee Harvey Oswald). If that turns out to be true, it’s bone-chilling stuff, like something out of a noir Hitchcock movie or Frederick Forsyth’s novel The Day of the Jackal.
- They oversaw the disastrous and humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, which left 13 soldiers dead, abandoned military equipment worth $7 Billion and put the Taliban into its strongest ever position. This empowerment of the Taliban has destroyed the hopes of millions of Afghan women of ever experiencing their freedom. Women and girls are always going to oppressed and abused in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The Biden-Harris administration has left them with no hope and no future. The haphazard way in which the withdrawal was handled will give power to the Taliban for decades to come.
The net effect of these 7 governmental disasters is a catalogue of chaos which will have incalculable consequences for years.
3 Forecasts for the 2024 Presidential Election
Bear in mind that the US Presidential election is always about a person and a political party. It’s the combination of the presidential candidate and the party he/she represents that will win or lose the election.
I’ve included in my forecast model a weighting for the comparative state and strength of each party. My model is very different from Professor Allan Lichtman’s famous 13 Keys to the White House. [Please see Appendix 2 for an analysis of his model as applied to the 2024 election]. Instead of 13 keys, I’ve got 7 Deciders. The Deciders are weighted in order of the influence that each one should have on the outcome of the election, relative to the other factors. The model has a point system for the Deciders with a total of 28 points to play for. The candidate who gains the most points in the system and wins most of the Deciders will have the best chance of winning the election. [Please see Appendix 1 “7 Deciders for Winning the US Presidential Election”.]
When I started this exercise, my gut feel was that Trump would win by a narrow margin. However, when I fed information into each of the 7 Deciders in my model, I was astounded to find that Trump won 28 out of 28, with Harris failing to win a single point. This development alerted me to the possibility of a near-landslide win for Trump, in both the popular vote and the electoral college.
Indeed, the ground has shifted a great deal in the four years between 2020 and 2024, leaving Harris stranded on the wrong side of history this time. Certainly, the high levels of chaos domestically and globally favor the populist candidate, in this case, Trump. The 7 disasters of the Biden-Harris government leave a very heavy burden of failure for a rookie Presidential candidate like Kamala Harris to handle.
Prediction # 1
Trump to become the 47th President by an overwhelming victory, comfortably winning both the popular vote and the electoral college vote.
In 2024, Trump will decisively reverse his 2020 defeat. The margin of victory will be roughly the same, or higher, as the one by which Biden won in 2020. Then, Biden got 306 electoral votes, with 232 going to Trump. The popular vote was 51.3% for Biden and 46.8% for Trump.
Predicted Electoral College Votes for the 2024 Presidential Race
538 total votes
310 for Trump (300-340 range)
228 for Harris (238-198 range)
Predicated 2024 Popular Vote
53% for Trump
47% for Harris
Rationale for Prediction #1
The changes in the overall social, economic and political climate between 2020 and 2024, especially the threat of WW3 and a nuclear Armageddon, the chaos of the current border control, with the high national security risk it brings, as well as the cost-of-living crisis symbolized by an alarming Consumer Price Index (CPI), add up to an environment of unparalleled uncertainty. This all favors the change candidate, Donald Trump, who has pledged to reverse these governmental disasters.
I see the CPI rate as emblematic of the economic uncertainty that cuts across all age and race groups. It’s a game-changer which is creating serious national momentum for Trump in 2024. The CPI is defined by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics as “a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services”. In August 2024, the unadjusted consumer price index (CPI) of all items for urban consumers in the United States was about 314.8. By August 2024, US prices had increased by 2.5 percent compared to August 2023, according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index. This is a considerable spike and makes millions of Americans nervous about rising prices and the cost of a basket of groceries.
And, according to Move For Hunger, more than 47 million Americans are now food insecure. That is unfortunate people who lack an adequate supply of nutritious food. This organization believes that US food insecurity is at its highest level in over a decade (see https://moveforhunger.org/hunger-and-homelessness). Hunger is on the rise for the second year in a row and hunger often precedes homeless, as Move for Hunger points out.
These are all existential issues, not just electoral or economic issues. That’s what makes them visceral and that’s why this election will be won by the perceived “strongman”, Donald Trump, rather than by a candidate who’s too scared to face the real press, let alone the likes of Putin, Xi Jinping, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei of Iran or Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Oh, Boy.
Prediction # 2
The divided, toxic Democratic Party will implode after its historic 2024 drubbing.
Post-election, the Democratic Party will be the subject of investigations into corruption and skulduggery. There will be months of in-fighting. Unless a leader of moral standing and rock-like integrity, with amazing communication skills, comes along soon, the Democratic Party will enter a long phase of decline, just like the Tory Party has done in the UK. During this precipitous decline, money, talent and defectors will cross over to the GOP. Such declines can enter downward spirals that lead to terminal decline and even party death. This party was so bad under Biden and Harris that it might even take over a decade to recover from their 7 unforgiveable governmental disasters.
It states categorically in Matthew 12:25 in the Holy Bible that a house divided against itself shall not stand. I believe this to be universally true.
Rationale for Prediction #2
The Democratic Party is imploding, with in-fighting at all levels of the party. There’s a general atmosphere of corrosive toxicity, while its legacy of 7 unforgiveable disasters cannot stand up even to the kindest and lightest of scrutiny, let alone any full investigation.
It’s a party in free-fall, fuelled by the fall-out from its incompetence and weakened by low approval ratings (for example, Biden has a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20). After the Palace Coup which removed Biden from the 2024 ticket, the Party has been led by a fake VP and her caught-in-the-headlights running mate, Tim Walz. That’s the very definition of unwinnable. They’ve got panic written all over their faces for good reason: they’ve got little to offer and lots to cover up.
Prediction # 3
Trump will run a “legacy Presidency” from 2024-2028. He will focus on ending forever wars (making the world safe again), building the Supreme Court, purging corruption from the justice system, restoring border security to the nation and institutionalizing America-first economics (including restoring US manufacturing competitiveness and rebalancing geo-politics), while cementing an RFK Jr inspired “make America healthy again” legacy.
Rationale for Prediction #3
The second Presidency of Donald Trump will be considerably different from his first, focused this time on cementing legacies mentioned above. He will want to achieve historic and political greatness in his second term before handing over the torch to his capable VP JD Vance. Trump has spoken a lot at his campaign rallies about his legacy. He knows if he wins in 2024, it will be his last term in office. He clearly sees JD Vance as his heir apparent. I believe he will try to make a big impact by cementing the MAGA values into the political and social systems of the US. To do this in four years, he’ll need peace abroad. This is true for his America-first policy, too. I see greater peace both abroad and in America happening in Trump’s second term as President. The madness of the donor-captured Biden-Harris administration will gradually be replaced by a more peaceful and authentic America-first agenda.
Why Donald Trump and JD Vance are winning on the issues, winning the swing states and winning the battle of the generations
While Harris and Walz are mushy and schmoozy on all the top election issues, and maddeningly evasive on questions of policy, both Trump and Vance answer questions in public directly and lucidly, giving strong direction to their audiences.
At the same time, there’s no doubt that Harris, in her laughing, happy-go-lucky, carnival-style campaign, is running away from the responsibility she faces for co-creating the current administration’s catalogue of domestic and international chaos. It’s become so obvious that she’s being cocooned in her party’s carefully stage-managed PR system. It’s not just her campaign which is tightly stage-managed: it’s her whole political persona. That’s all she’s become: a manufactured political persona with the façade of a tipsy, giggling college student. All savvy Americans can see right through her game. Hillary Clinton is a thousand times smarter, better read and knowledgeable than Kamala will ever be.
In 2016, the Democrats picked a strong candidate; in 2024, they were forced to accept a feeble candidate after they engineered their Palace Coup. While the Coup was being orchestrated, it seems there was a broad-based Democratic conspiratorial climate conducive to the assassination of their biggest political opponent. Where was the Rule of Law in all this? Where was the morality? It’s like something out of a B-movie about the rise and fall of the Roman Empire.
The election issues for 2024 have therefore arisen under a dark cloud of the uncertainty. Dangerous levels of chaos and insecurity have been created in America and abroad. VP Harris cannot giggle or drink her way out of this historic mess.
Unsurprisingly, America’s youth are feeling the anxiety, addicted to a social media which can only present a fragmented picture of the world around them. At the same time, the older demographic groups are deeply unsure about the present, let alone the future. They’re burdened by economic fears, in the context of a surging Consumer Price Index, as well as by threats at the national security level arising from the broken southern border. The heightened nuclear threat to America is perhaps at the back of their minds, too. Much prayer is needed, in my view.
Reuters/Ipsos surveys have shown that voters see the economy, including inflation, price levels and housing affordability, as their No. 1 election issue. Inflation is often cited as the most important of the economic dimensions, followed by economic growth. In a poll in October, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for the economy, 8 points more than Harris at 38%.
Trump is more trusted in polls on immigration and crime, too. He told supporters in August he would keep suburbs safe and ensure that migrants coming across the border illegally are kept “away from the suburbs.”
In this August’s GenForward Survey, a project of Professor Cathy J. Cohen at the University of Chicago, immigration was a key issue for all demographic groups, followed by economic growth. The survey came up with a staggering indictment of the Biden-Harris administration – the overwhelming majority of all demographic groups believe the country is going in the wrong direction. Most also believe that democracy is broken in the US.
In addition, 40% disapproved of Kamala Harris, with 32% disapproving strongly. Regarding the immigration issue, 45% said the current government is doing a very bad job. 52% stated that the Biden-Harris administration have failed to improve the national economy. Regarding foreign policy, 47% disapprove of the way the war in Gaza has been handled.
The truth is both Biden and Harris are serial failures and most voters know it.
It’s evident that Trump and Vance are winning convincingly on the top election issues.
It appears they’ll win the battle of the generations, too. The following four generation blocs will be the core of the electorate, with their concerns and values determining which way they’ll vote.
What’s going on in the minds of the four top generation blocs in this graphic, the Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Zs, as they prepare to vote for their next President?
Data from 2019 from the U.S. Census Bureau showed Millennials (ages 23 to 38) numbering 72.1 million, slightly higher than the 71.6 million Boomers (ages 55 to 73). These are the two most important generations to watch in 2024.
The Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation before them have supported the Republicans in every presidential election since 2000. Today, roughly 52% of voters aged 65 and above are likely to vote for Donald Trump3.
Meanwhile, CIRCLE (the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) reports that 41 million Gen Zers are eligible to vote in 2024, making them a massive voting bloc (see https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024 and https://www.statista.com/statistics/1470453/likelihood-voting-2024-presidential-election-generation-us/).
In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, Gen Z and Millennial voters will make up around 48.5 percent of the electorate.
Recent surveys show that about 71% of Gen Z and Millennials are definitely going to vote, while this figure jumps to 93% for Baby Boomers. Will the 2024 Presidential election be characterized by a “Revenge of the Baby Boomers”, in view of their expected high turn-out and their influence in the swing states? 80% of this age cohort is white, while more than four-in-ten of Millennials are non-white, reflecting the current diversity of the nation.
We know that Millennials and Gen Zs get most of their information from social media. In the social media space, especially on X, Telegram, Tik-Tok and YouTube, Trump is more dominant and viral than Harris. Often Harris memes and posts go viral for all the wrong reasons. In the top social media platforms, Trump is often portrayed as whimsical, but strong, forceful and spontaneous, that is, real, while Harris often looks awkward, silly and far too stage-managed for a tech-savvy digital age audience looking for authenticity. This is going to cost the Harris-Walz campaign very dearly.
After surviving two traumatic, and highly suspicious, assassination attempts, there’s evidence that Donald Trump is in the heads of Americans of all ages.
As indicated already, across these four voting blocs, there’s an atmosphere of a dire looming crisis. The domestic and international chaos I’ve mentioned will come back to haunt the ruling party on November 5. Millions of Americans of all ages will be looking for greater security and better economic prospects in the future. They badly need change.
In a national mood of hard-nosed scepticism, Americans in 2024 will vote with a sharp-eyed ruthlessness. This means they will see through VP Harris for evading all responsibility for the dangerous mess she helped to create. Appearing to be barely articulate about economics and geo-politics, Harris has zero chance of convincing the American public that she can manage the economy, secure the southern border and bring peace to the world. While Trump and Vance are boldly facing forwards, Harris is complicit in four years of messy governmental failures.
Having looked at the battle for top election issues, let’s turn to the race to win the 7 swing states for the 2024 election. After predicting the outcome in each swing state, I’ll also forecast who’s most likely to win the two crucial states of Texas and Florida. That way, the path to electoral victory will become clearer.
- Arizona – 11 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump wins Arizona
In this state, which Biden won in 2020 by 11,000 votes, the social and economic impacts of the failed immigration policy of the Democrats will influence the choice of many voters. As it borders Mexico for hundreds of miles, Arizona is the focal point of the nation’s immigration woes.
VP Harris seems to deny that Biden made her his Border Czar. Yet, under her management, immigration reached record highs. In response, Trump has promised to carry out the largest deportation operation in US history.
A recent poll by AARP shows the former president leading Harris in Arizona by 2 percentage points among likely voters. 49 percent of respondents support Trump and 47 percent support Harris.
Given that it’s madness to flood your country too rapidly with so many people on such an industrial scale, it’s likely that Trump will hold on to, or increase, his narrow lead in the state. The Harris immigration policy has put too great a financial and social burden on towns and cities across the nation, while undermining cultural cohesion in a classic “future shock” effect. There’s now a real heightened national security risk arising from this border chaos, as some migrants who were brought into the US by this administration are terrorists, criminals, drug traffickers and human sex traffickers.
Arizona is traditionally a Republican-leaning state. In a time of crisis, it’s almost certain the state will return to its Republican roots.
I forecast this swing state will go to Trump.
- Georgia – 16 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump wins Georgia
In 2020, Biden won this state by 13,000 votes. It’s thought that the African-American voters, who make up a 1/3 of the population, helped him flip this state. Current polls show a tight race and this could be one of the most closely contested of the swing states. However, Trump is starting to pull ahead, according to a Quinnipiac University poll that found him up by six points over VP Harris. A Cook Political Report survey showed him up by two points. The fact that the GOP controls the state Senate, the House and the Governor’s office suggests Trump is more likely than not to win Georgia.
- Michigan – 15 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump wins Michigan
In 2020, Biden won the state by 150,000 votes. That’s a significant margin of victory. And Michigan has picked the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections.
There are issues among Arab-Americans in the state arising from the way the Biden-Harris government has funded and enabled the genocide in Gaza. This state has the country’s largest proportion of Arab-Americans as well as its largest Lebanese-American population. The city of Dearborn, sometimes called the capital of Arab-America, contains the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the US. In February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots in the primary contest in Michigan. That is a sizeable backlash, as it’s equal to 2/3s of the 150,000 margin of victory Biden enjoyed in 2020.
Some polls still give Harris a narrow lead over Trump, although Trump is far ahead among independent voters in Michigan and it’s the independents who put the “swing” into this swing state.
In such a narrowly contested state election, the support for RFK Jr, at about 5% of the state’s electorate, might tip the result in Trump’s favor. Among independents in the state, that 5% overall support rises to 16% for RFK Jr. Since the son of Robert Kennedy has joined the Trump campaign, these voters may well back Trump.
And the former President did win the state back in 2016 (by 10,704 votes).
Since there’s an existential crisis in the air in this 2024 election, I reckon it’s the election issues that will tip the scale, especially in this state. We know inflation, high prices and the cost-of-living crisis are uppermost in most voters’ minds. On the economy, Trump beat Harris by 13 percentage points in an August poll of Michigan voters. Trump’s message of restoring the manufacturing base and power in the region resonates with millions.
And Trump epitomizes the American Dream to many in the immigrant community.
Given the disaster in Gaza and now Lebanon, and given the RFK Jr X factor, as well as Trump’s connection to the manufacturing hub of the state, including blue-collar workers, I would predict Trump will win the state by about 20,000-50,000 votes.
- Nevada – 6 electoral votes – Prediction – Too Close to Call
In 2020, Biden won Nevada by 34,000 votes. This state has voted Democrat for the last several elections, so it will be hard for Trump to flip this state, with its large Latino population.
Nevada is in a bit of an economic slump, with one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.
Trump’s message of lower taxes and fewer regulations is resonating, but Harris currently has a narrow 1.8% lead.
The state has leaned more towards the Republicans in recent years and the GOP won the Governor’s office in 2022. And for the first time in decades, in the mid-terms, the Republican Party won the popular vote of the statewide House.
The fact that there are 141,600 undocumented immigrants in the state could be a factor for swing voters, depending on whether there has been any trouble or tension arising from their presence.
This really is an uncertain swing state, too close to call.
- North Carolina – 16 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump wins North Carolina
In 2020, Trump won the state by 74,000 votes. He has said it’s a very big state to win. And the polls show it’s a tight race there. Traditionally, this is Republican territory. Harris has an uphill battle to flip the state blue. Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the state legislature. Historically, the state has only voted for one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980 and that was for Barack Obama in 2008.
Significantly, Trump commands the voters’ trust on the key issues of this election, the economy and immigration. The same holds true for crime and safety. My take is that in this time of uncertainty, Trump is in their heads more than Harris is. That’s why on election day, the state will stay red. There isn’t enough firepower from the Democrats on these election issues to flip the state.
- Pennsylvania – 19 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump narrowly wins Pennsylvania
In 2020, Biden won the pivotal state by 82,000 votes. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin. He was then the first Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988 to win Pennsylvania. Traditionally, then, Pennsylvania’s been a Democratic stronghold.
Will it prove providential that Donald Trump dramatically survived the first assassination attempt in this very state, awakening sympathy among many voters?
As in most swing states, the top issue is the economy. Pennsylvanians are feeling the pinch of the cost-of-living crisis. Grocery prices have risen sharply in the state. There’s significant food insecurity in counties like Erie.
The presidential race in this state is very close. A recent AARP poll gives Harris a 3-point lead, 50% to 47%. This state has a history of close contests.
Importantly, the older voting bloc will be decisive in 2024. In Pennsylvania, 55 percent of all registered voters are 50 or older. They’re a larger cohort than younger voters and they are the most motivated to vote. They also contain lots of swing voters, still open to persuasion. Many are worried about their personal finances and tend to place the economy, including inflation and rising prices, at the top of their list of important election issues. They also rate immigration and border security as crucial. Older voters are concerned about the costs of food, health care and prescription drugs.
My view is that Trump will be perceived by the voters in this largest cohort in the state as the strongest candidate to lead the nation on the economy and on border security, while others might believe the Democrats will have the best health care plan.
This state is going to go down to the wire. It’s very possible that the sympathy for Trump after coming so close to being assassinated in Pennsylvania will tip the final vote tally in his favor.
- Wisconsin – 10 electoral votes – Prediction – Trump narrowly wins Wisconsin
In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by 21,000 votes. In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a similar margin. The winner in Wisconsin has won the White House in the past four presidential elections. It’s a bellwether state, for sure.
In the latest polls, Harris is marginally ahead at 47.9% to 47.3% for Trump. This is a dead heat.
Although this is traditionally a blue state, the one factor which might give this state back to Trump is that many voters in Wisconsin were backing independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr. Kennedy’s subsequent endorsement of Trump is a huge asset for winning over swing voters. That’s why I’m giving this state to the Trump campaign by a narrow margin.
In conclusion, Trump is forecast in this model to win 6 of the 7 swing states, namely, Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (19).
In addition to the 7 swing states, the winners of Texas and Florida will be handed a big chunk of electoral votes. Florida yields 30 electoral votes, while Texas yields a whopping 40 votes, 2nd only to California with its massive 54 votes. If you win Texas and Florida, you’ve banked 70 votes towards the 270 needed for victory.
In Texas, Trump currently has a 5-point lead over Harris and there simply isn’t enough fuel in the tank on the Democratic ticket to overturn this lead, so I give Texas to the Trump campaign. The Democrats currently can’t even keep their party together, while Harris and Walz are the most vacuous pair of candidates I’ve ever seen. On the big stage, they come across as complete lightweights. There’s therefore zero chance of Harris winning Texas, in my view.
Florida in 2024 is tighter than Texas is, but I would bet on Trump maintaining his poll lead through to election day as Harris just hasn’t got enough “umph” to turn things around.
Adding up the 87 electoral votes from the swing states to the 70 votes from Florida and Texas, there’s a strong probability that Trump will collect 157 electoral votes from these 9 critical states. That margin of victory points towards a possible near-landslide win in the electoral college.
To complete the macro electoral picture for 2024, let’s look at who will win the important Christian vote on the national level.
The 2024 national survey shows that 66% of American adults consider themselves to be Christians. However, only about 6% of the self-identified Christians, according to Pew Research, possess a biblical worldview (i.e. believe in Biblical Theism)4. That’s a huge bloc of voters right there: about 210 million people! You can almost say that whoever wins the Christian vote wins the popular vote.
Pew Research showed in a September 2024 survey that there are three main religious groups in America which overwhelmingly support Trump, namely, White nonevangelical Protestants (58%), White evangelical Protestants (82%) and White Catholics (61%). They also state that the other religious groups tend to support Harris and Democratic candidates, such as Black Protestants (86%), Hispanic Catholics (65%), Jewish voters (65%), Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus5.
Since America is still an overwhelmingly Christian country at 66% of the population, and since Trump is going to win the overall Christian vote, while Harris will win most votes from the minority religions (excepting, that is, Muslims offended by the massacre of civilians in Gaza), it stands to reason that Trump’s chances of winning the popular vote are very high. This is especially true when you combine this with the other factors discussed above.
Conclusion
The Trump/Vance campaign is winning on the top election issues, like the economy and immigration, while top-of-the-ticket Trump is winning on charisma and character. In addition, he’s on the right side of history, as the new wave of prevailing social conditions, totally different to those of 2020, strongly favor him over Harris.
By contrast, the Democratic Party is in a state of imminent collapse, while Harris and Walz may be the most unconvincing candidates ever to contest a Presidential election. A party which destroyed democracy within its own ranks can never feign to defend democracy and deserves to be consigned to history’s trash heap. A party which broke its own borders and undermined the nation’s security, while at the same time pushing the world to the edge of the abyss of WW3 and a nuclear Armageddon, is a disgrace to America, to the West and to humanity.
The Democratic ticket is almost certainly going to look and smell like badly burnt toast come November 5.
End Notes
- See my blog “Preparing for a Pax Trumpicana”, dated 3 August 2016, in which I gave Trump a 60% chance of victory, even though the Upshot election model of the New York Times at the time assigned to Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of winning the presidency. My basic argument in 2016 was that Trump would ride a wave of populism sweeping through the West, with its roots in the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 and the subsequent Great Recession. His ability to destroy the persona of his rivals in the public domain was cited as a major reason why he would defeat Hillary Clinton, especially given her own problematic stature amongst sections of the American electorate.
https://www.infideas.com/preparing-pax-trumpicana/
See also my essay “Why a Millennial-Dominated America Could Shred Donald Trump in the November 2020 Presidential Elections”, dated Oct 2, 2020, in which I assigned a 55% probability for a decisive and comfortable victory for Biden, a 65% probability for a narrow win for him and a 55% probability that Trump would resist a peaceful, constitutional handover of power:
https://michaeljlee.com/why-a-millennial-dominated-america-could-shred-donald-trump/
Both the 2016 and 2020 predications were based on analysis of causal factors and on probability logic, outlined in my book Codebreaking our Future (https://www.amazon.com/Codebreaking-our-future-Deciphering-FutureS/dp/1908984260). I recently developed the 7 Deciders model, inspired by the wildly successful 13 Keys to the White House of Professor Allan Lichtman.
- Cleveland, a New York Democrat, won a narrow victory in 1884 but lost in the Electoral College in 1888, while winning the popular vote. Cleveland decisively beat Benjamin Harrison in 1892 – the man he had lost to four years earlier. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/16/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office
3.Read more at:
- See https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades/
- Read more at:
Appendix 1 : 7 Deciders for Winning the US Presidential Election (A Weighted Forecast Model)
The election is about a person and a party. It’s about the candidate at the top of the ticket (and, to a much lesser degree about the VP choice) and about how the party, as a whole, is perceived nationally at the time of the election.
Decider # 1: 7 points allocated
Which candidate is favored by the prevailing macro conditions (social, economic, political, demographic and historical conditions)? Who is on the right side of history in terms of the current waves of change? The candidate who is best aligned to current underlying and evolving realities is most likely to succeed.
In 2024, Trump is on the right side of history.
Decider # 2: 6 points allocated
Who’s winning on the identified key election issues? Who is most articulate and dynamic when communicating electoral messages?
In 2024, Trump is winning on the issues.
Decider # 3: 5 points allocated
In the personal contest between the candidates who is the most dynamic? This encompasses such qualities as charisma, personality, energy, strength, vision, enthusiasm, values, character, brand, intellect and social media profile.
In 2024, Trump is winning on charisma, strength, dynamism and other personal qualities.
Decider # 4: 4 points allocated
Which candidate benefits most from recent game changers?
The Palace Coup against Biden, the popularity of RFK Jr and his switch to endorse Trump, the 2 assassination attempts on Trump, under suspicious circumstances, the recent national shift of large parts of the electorate towards identification with the Republicans, are perhaps the biggest game-changers of the 2024 election cycle.
These major 2024 game-changers all favor Trump.
Decider # 5: 3 points allocated
Who’s winning on the big social media platforms?
On major platforms like X, Tik-Tok, YouTube, etc, Trump memes and posts project a larger-than-life character, while the social media profile for Harris is quite caricatured and cartoonish.
In 2024, Trump is winning the social media battle.
Decider # 6: 2 points allocated
What is the comparative state of the party for each candidate? This factor includes corruption levels, scandals, the power of machinery behind each candidate, with its infrastructure for mobilizing new supporters to its base.
As discussed above , the Democratic Party is riven by internal divisions at the highest level, which are becoming increasingly toxic, while its legacy is deeply tainted by failure. By contrast, the GOP is united and aligned to its bold electoral messaging.
In 2024, Trump wins with a united GOP.
Decider # 7: 1 point allocated
Which candidate has made the best VP choice?
JD Vance demolished Tim Walz in the VP debate and is far more composed, dignified, articulate and gracious than “wobbly” Walz.
JD Vance wins over Tim Walz on a majority of criteria for a competent and admirable VP.
Total of 28 points
Result: The Trump/Vance team win 28/28 points in this analysis using the 7 Decider model.
Inference: This 100% success rate on the 7 Deciders points to an extremely high probability that Trump will win the popular vote and the Presidency comfortably and convincingly.
Appendix 2: Challenging the 13 Keys Model of Professor Allan Lichtman
Using his famous 13 keys model, widely respected Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted that Harris will win the 2024 Presidential election.
He says his 13 keys are simple to use: if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win.
However, in 2024, I see a problem with his interpretation of these keys. I believe he’s misreading the changing and prevailing social and historical conditions as well as the striking differences in the performances of the incumbent and the challenger in their respective electoral campaigns.
In my estimation, 5 of his 13 keys are effectively neutralized, or unanswerable, and should not go to either candidate. That leaves 8 keys up for contention.
Of these 8 keys, I foresee Trump winning 7 and Harris winning 1. In my interpretation for 2024, then, using this forecasting model, Harris loses by a wide margin.
Key 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
With the Republicans winning 220 seats to the Democrats’ 213 seats, Key 1 goes to Trump.
Key 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
The Palace Coup conducted by the Democratic Party to oust Biden from the 2024 campaign negates the advantage of “having no competition”. The party also muzzled the primaries. So, Harris didn’t compete, she didn’t earn her nomination.
Therefore, Key 2 goes to no one.
Key 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. This will not be influential for 2 reasons: (i) Harris is the VP, not the President and (ii) the Biden-Harris administration was a governmental disaster.
Therefore, Key 3 goes to no one.
Key 4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
This key is negated because of the RFK Jr factor – he was a serious contender, a high- profile third party/independent candidate, but was mistreated by the authoritarian Democrats and later joined Trump’s campaign. He pushes up support for Trump.
Therefore, Key 4 goes to no one.
Key 5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. This key just goes to Harris, although the CPI is sky high.
Key 5 goes to Harris.
Key 6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Key 6 goes to Trump as he is widely seen, on a national level, across all age groups, as a better manager of the national economy, while the CPI index and cost-of-living scenario is frightening for millions of Americans who will seek change in 2024.
Key 7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Key 7 is neutralised and goes to no one as the overall failures of the government, on a colossal, possibly incalculable scale, overshadow any achievements.
Key 8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Key 8 goes to no one because while there is no rioting in the streets, there is widespread anxiety, frustration and an invisible form of unrest/agitation about the border chaos and its implications for national security.
Key 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Key 9 goes to Trump as the whole administration has been scandalous, including the Palace Coup that removed Biden and the callous way Trump and RFK Jr have been handled in terms of security when there is a very high risk of assassination attempts. These assassination attempts were so suspicious there’s a sense of a conspiracy to murder Trump.
Key 10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Key 10 goes to Trump because we are all living in a catastrophic WW3 scenario and potential nuclear Armageddon. The world is at its most dangerous since WW2, thanks to the reckless support of the Biden-Harris government for the military-industrial complex and the incredible amount of money spent on unwinnable wars, rather than seeking global peace.
Key 11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Key 11 goes to Trump, given this administration’s failed withdrawal from Afghanistan and its disasters in the unwinnable wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Key 12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Key 12 goes to Trump, since Harris is like a robot or puppet, and cackles and giggles too much, while being a very poor speaker. In the social media sphere, she is often a laughing-stock. Neither is she especially popular within the US.
Key 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Key 13 goes to Trump as he is a very charismatic candidate who became a national hero after surviving two assassination attempts with strength and dignity.
Conclusion
Using this model, in my interpretation,
Trump wins 7 keys to the White House, Harris wins 1 key,
and 5 keys are null and void.